T-BONE NFL 2009
40-25-2 +48.3U (+$4,830)

Playoffs Super Bowl
Super Bowl Sunday and T-Bone has the side and the over/under.  This is the first year I will personally be playing both.  I usually focus on one but the data is so tilted in one direction for both bets it would be foolish not play them both.  The Super Bowl is known for skewed lines due to the sheer volume of sports betting by inexperienced cappers; let’s take advantage together shall we.

The Saints are only underdogs because they squeaked by a very good Vikings team and the Colts are big favorites due to a dismantling of a very suspect Jets team.  Bottom line the Saints are not 6 points worse than the Colts, period.  The line started at 3.5 and has ballooned, jump all over it at 6 before it comes back down, but I would put four units on anything above 4. This is the first time in awhile that both number 1 seeds are playing and the Super Bowls have been close of late, the trend will continue.  Take the Saints plus 6 for 4 units.

This is the highest Super Bowl over/under line in history, and with both 1 seeds of high powered offenses playing I understand, but I simply disagree.  This is the most important game of the year and the teams will play conservative and feel each other out in the beginning, bringing the total down.  There will be more systematic drives then bombs, more Peyton and Brees making good decisions then winging it all over the place, sorry Favre.  I look for very few turnovers and a score somewhere around 24-21.  Under is 16-7 in Saints last 23 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.  Under is 7-3 in Colts last 10 playoff games.  Take the under 56.5 for 3 units.

Saints plus 6 for 4 units (WIN)
Under 56.5 for 3 units (WIN)

Playoffs Week 3
T-Bone has another good playoff week here for you, with two strong 4 star plays.

T-Bone has hit the Jets as a dog in the previous two playoff weeks and will be doing the same this week. The Jets have a serious shot at winning outright but we will jump all over the +7.5 points. The formula of running and defense is playoff gold. Jets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in January. Colts are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Take the Jets plus the points for 4 units.

The Saints and Vikings are hitting on all cylinders and this game will fly over the total of 52.5. Over is 8-2 in Vikings last 10 games as a road underdog, 4-0-1 in Saints last 5 playoff games and 4-1 in Saints last 5 games in January. This is one of T-Bone’s rare over/under plays so confidently put four units the over.

Jets + 7.5 for 4 units (loss)
Saints/Vikings over 52.5 for 4 units (WIN)

Playoffs Week 2
T-Bone has got your plays for week 2 of the playoffs. We won again in week 1 and are 10-1 in our last 11 when it counts. Keep coming back and we’ll keep winning together. Research breeds success with T-bone. Here are three solid plays for week 2 with 11 total units on the line. 

The Jets surprised everyone except T-Bone in week 1 and they will do the same here. I would not be surprised to see them win outright vs. the Chargers but covering the 9 will be no problem. Get this line early before it moves, the Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0 and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games. Take the Jets +9 for 4 units.

The Ravens surprised everyone except T-Bone in week1, sound familiar. Simply plan, good defense and good running game vs. a throwing team. If the Ravens get up early it will be the Patriots game all over again. Ravens are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 playoff road games and the Colts are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Take Baltimore + 7 for 4 units.

The Vikings and Cowboys will light up the scoreboard and I am jumping all over the over 45 ½. This will be the most tightly contested game of the weekend and they will go back and forth way over the total. Over is 6-1 in Cowboys last 7 games on turf and over is 3-0-1 in Vikings last 4 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0. Take over 45 ½ for 3 units.

Jets + 9 for 4 units (WIN)
Ravens + 7 for 4 units (loss)
Dal/Min over 46 for 3 units (loss)

Playoffs Week 1
T-Bone is coming off of 7-0 the last two weeks and up over 40 units this season. We have three strong plays during wild card weekend with 10 total units.
There is a lot of overreaction to week 17 results when only one team has something to play for that is why the over/under for the Bengals vs. Jets opened at 40 and dropped all the way to 34.5 by Monday. T-Bone like to take advantage of this movement and take the over. The Jets defense isn’t that good and Carson Palmer isn’t that bad, I see the score being in the 20’s for each team in a hard fought battle. Over is 4-1 in Jets last 5 games as a road underdog of 0.5-3.0. Take the over for 3 units.
There are a lot of close games on wild card weekend but I don’t think this will be one. The patriots are a shell of the team we all remember dominating in the recent past, the Ravens are an up and coming team with a young quarterback and three headed running attack which plays perfectly against the weakness of New England. I see an outright win for the Ravens as they look to make a run similar to Pittsburgh last year. Ravens are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 playoff road games. The Patriots are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 playoff games. Take Baltimore +3.5 for 3 units.
This pick has absolutely nothing to do with Green Bay’s dismantling of Arizona last week. This is not a reaction pick but simply the hottest team this side of the Chargers against a team that would likely not be in the playoffs if they played in a different division. This will be another outright win for the road underdog as the Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 0.5-3.0 and the Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. Take Green Bay +3 for 4 units.

Green Bay +3 for 4 units (loss)
Baltimore +3.5 for 3 units (WIN)
Cin/Jets over 34.5 for 3 units (WIN)

Week 17
Patriots are the anti-Colts, they never take the gas off the pedal, they will come out with the A lineup and not take them out until they have a comfortable lead. They will easily cover the 8 point line and have a very good chance at the outright win. Patriots are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games in Week 17 and Texans are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win, Take New England plus 8.

This is a battle of two very hot teams and very strong super bowl contenders. The Packers are the more well rounded team and will come out trying to steal the #2 seed. Packers are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall and the Cardinals are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite of 3.0 -10.0. Take Green Bay plus 3.
The 8-7 Falcons are only a 1 point favorite over the 3-12 Bucs due to the dramatic come from behind win the Bucs had over New Orleans last week, not the talent on the field. The Falcons will run out all the regulars and get the winning record. Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite of 0.5-3.0. The Buccaneers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0. Take Falcons minus 1.

The Bears showed what Jay Cutler could be in their Monday night win over the Vikings, the Lions have Drew Stanton. That is worth the three point spread alone, but the Bears are a team on the verge and the Lions are looking at draft position. Lions are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog of 0.5-3.0. Take the Bears minus 3.

Patriots plus 8 for 4 units (WIN)
Falcons minus 1 for 4 units (WIN)
Packers plus 3 for 3 units (WIN)
Bears minus 3 for 3 units (WIN)

Week 16
Christmas day football with possibly the best team in football as an underdog, I’ll take it. San Diego is very good and although Tennessee is improved and fighting for a playoff spot, Vince Young is beat up and they are just not in the same league yet. Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games and 20-6-3 ATS in their last 29 games as an underdog. Titans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0 and 1-8 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Take San Diego plus 3.

Kansas City is not a great team but they play tough and they cover the big lines. Chiefs are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater. Cincy has had a great season but they do not cover the big line, they are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater. Take the Chiefs plus 14.

San Fran is a quality team with a great running back and Detroit has one of the worst run defenses in the league. The 49ers will lean on them early and this will be a blowout early. 49ers are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 home games and 16-7 ATS in their last 23 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater. Lions are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 10.5 or greater and 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 road games. Take San Fran minus 12.

San Diego plus 3 for 2 units (WIN)
Kansas City plus 14 for 3 units (WIN)
49ers minus 12 for 2 units (WIN)

Week 15
San Diego may be the best team in the AFC, no offense to the Colts, and Cincy has been playing well at home and not quite the same on the road. This game has huge playoff implications and the Chargers won’t let the foot off the gas. Chargers are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and 9-2 ATS in December. The Bengals are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Take San Diego -6.

Pittsburgh has been the Achilles heel of bettors this entire season but have a great spot here. The Steel Curtain will shake off the embarrassment of the Thursday night loss to the Browns and beat up a demoralized Packers team. Steelers are 9-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Take Pittsburgh -1.

Seattle plays well at home and they host the 1-12 Bucs. Seahawks will control the ball and cover with ease here. Seahawks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0 and 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Buccaneers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog. Take Seattle -6.5.

San Diego -6.5 for 2 units (loss)
Pittsburgh -1 for 2 units (Push)
Seattle -6.5 for 3 units (loss)

Week 14
T-Bone won you money again last week going 2-1 and we have three more strong NFL picks this week.

Buffalo will travel to Kansas City and continue their resurgence. This is a rare pick’em game and T-bone is all over it. Bills are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games and the Chiefs are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 home games, that is a recipe for a Bills victory. T-Bone takes the Bills.

T-bone loves the Vikings at home, throw in the humiliating loss to the Cardinals and AP and Favre have even more motivation. The Bengals have been struggling of late against less than stellar competition. Vikings are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0 and 3-1-1 ATS at home. Take Minnesota – 6.5.

T-Bone will lay the big line on the Ravens; this is another example of a team coming of an embarrassing loss vs. a weak team. Flacco and company will stay in the playoff hunt vs. the Lions. Stafford will most likely not play and Calvin is not the same since his injury. Lions are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog and Ravens are 9-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record and are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater. Take the Ravens -13.

Bills even for 3 units (WIN)
Vikings – 6.5 for 3 units (WIN)
Ravens -13 for 3 units (WIN)

Week 13
T-Bone loves Indy again, the Colts keep winning and lately so do the Titans. Peyton will not lose the winning streak at home, and when the Colts win they cover. Colts are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record and the Titans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Take Indy -6.5.

T-Bone was very impressed with the Broncos last week and feel like they are in the playoff push. They visit the Chiefs this week and will definitely cover the 4.5 line. Broncos are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win and the Chiefs are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Take Denver -4.5.

T-Bone will continue to ride Josh Freeman and the Bucs all the way to the bank. This team still isn’t winning but man do they cover. They will be at Carolina and new starter Matt Moore and they will keep it close if not win outright. Buccaneers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0 and the Panthers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0. Hmmmm Take the Bucs +7.

Indy -6.5 for 3 units (WIN)
Denver -4.5 for 3 units (WIN)
Tampa +7 for 3 units (loss)

Week 12
T-Bone won you a 5 unit and 4 unit play last week and we have three more strong plays for week 12.

First off Tampa Bay has been a different team since Josh Freeman took the helm, they upset Green Bay, had Miami on the ropes and then played New Orleans. That Saints game is the only reason the line is double digits. Falcons are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater. Take the Bucs +11.5.

Staying with the Florida teams, the Phins have the running game going even without Ronnie Brown. Buffalo’s valiant effort last week vs. the Jags under the new coaching regime kept this line down to a field goal. Dolphins are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC East and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games. Bills are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games and are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0. Take Miami -3.

Finally, T-Bone loves Indy vs. the Texans. Indy has been scrapping and clawing to stay undefeated and will be ready for what the Texans bring. Houston almost pulled the upset last time so there will be no surprises or underestimation here. Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite and are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games. The Texans are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. Take Colts -3.5.

Tampa Bay +11.5 for 2 units. (WIN)
Miami -3 for 2 units. (loss)
Colts -3.5 for 3 units. (WIN)

Week 11
T-Bone is taking three big spreads in week 11 with the same formula; very good team beating the snot out of a very bad team, simple isn’t it.

First we are taking Pittsburgh -10 at Kansas City. A few weeks ago the Chiefs had two star players, Larry Johnson and Dwayne Bowe, well now LJ is a Bengal and Bowe is suspended. This isn’t the best time for Big Ben and company to come rolling in. Chiefs are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. This will be ugly and fast.

Next we will take the Minnesota Vikings -11 vs the Seahawks. Minny wins big when it wins which is just about every week this year, and at home they are unstoppable. Favre should only have to play a half and look to see AP get his touches early and often. Seahawks are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog and 0-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Vikings are 4-1-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

Finally we will take the Patriots minus 10 vs the Jets. Lets try this for motivation, Pats are coming off of a game where they had the undefeated Colts down double digits with minutes to play and lost, and playing a team that beat them in division earlier in the year, oh and it’s the Jets . Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC East and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Patriots are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record and 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a S.U. loss.

Pittsburgh -10 for 3 units (loss)
Minnesota -11 for 4 units (WIN)
Patriots -10 for 5 units!!!!!!!!!! (WIN)

Week 10
Thursday Teaser Madness- This is a matchup of two reeling teams with two battered defenses. No team gets separation or hold the other offense down. Lots of turnovers, lots of short fields and lots of scoring. Tease the Bears to +9 and over to 37 and enjoy your only Thursday NFL game. Bears are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS loss and the 49ers are 10-21-2 ATS in their last 33 games as a favorite.

The Saints vs. the Rams will get ugly, real ugly. The Saints have been down multiple scores in each of their last two games and still won by double digits. This gives Coach Payton plenty of ammunition to get his team going out of the gate. The Saints will be up early and just extend the lead as the game progresses. Saints are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite and 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 road games. Rams are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games as a home underdog. Take New Orleans minus 13.5.

T-Bone has been right to bet against the Broncos the last two weeks but now Denver is undervalued. This is still the team that Beat New England and Dallas playing the Redskins who are coming off of 4 straight losses, including the Chiefs, without their leading rusher. Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Redskins are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games and 2-11-3 ATS in their last 16 games overall. Take Denver -3.5.

The Panthers are coming off of two very good performances and resulting off of this overinflated line. The Falcons are better, much better and will show it in Carolina. Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite of 0.5-3.0 and 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss and1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0. Take the Falcons minus 1.

Tease Bears +9 and over 37 for 3 units (loss)
New Orleans -13.5 for 3 units (loss)
Broncos -3.5 for 3 units (loss)
Falcons -1 for 2 units (loss)

Week 9
The Colts are one of the best teams in the league and survived a scare last week. T-Bone looks for teams with motivation and Indy has it. The Texans have played well of late but against inferior competition. Look for Peyton Manning to show everyone that last week was an aberration and get into the end zone multiple times. Colts are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. Texans are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. Take Indy -9.5.

If the Titans had not won last week the line vs. San Fran would be in double digits but lucky for us its only 4. One win does not change the fact that is still the same team that is consistently getting blown out by 30 +, the 49ers are coming off of 3 tough defeats and are at home. 49ers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss and 5-1-2 ATS overall. Titans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games, take San Fran -4.

Teaser madness again, T-Bone has been on the money the last 2 teasers but missed by a point or two each time. The numbers have a way of righting themselves. New Orleans falls into our system vs. Carolina. T-bone jumps on lines that are chasing last week’s box score, Carolina is still not very good and New Orleans had Atlanta dominated before the back door cover, and still won by 8. Saints are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite. The Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog. Tease New Orleans and the over to -6 over 46.

The bloom is off of the Denver Broncos’ undefeated season, they are still a quality team but Baltimore showed what can happen when the ball doesn’t bounce their way every chance. Don’t be fooled by the record, Pittsburgh is a top team in this league and will win on Monday night. Steelers are 8-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and the Broncos are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss. Take Pittsburgh -3

Indy – 9.5 for 3 units (loss)
San Fran – 4 for 2 units (loss)
Tease New Orleans and the over -6 over 46 for 3 units (WIN)
Pittsburgh -3 for 2 units (WIN)

Week 8
T-Bone won you money again in week 7, winning both of our 4 unit picks and going 2-0-1 with Houston pushing after being up 21 early. We have 4 more solid picks for you here.

Baltimore has had three tough luck losses to three quality opponents in their last 3 weeks. Denver has found a way to win all their close games. The ball doesn’t bounce the same way each week, Baltimore will win and cover in a matchup of very close teams. The Ravens are 9-2 ATS as a favorite and 4-1 ATS after a loss. Take the Ravens -3.

Teaser madness, T-Bone has been picking his spots and using a system to abuse teasers all year. Ding Ding Ding… Here we go again. Tease Indy with the over. Indy is the class of the AFC and at home they are unstoppable. San Fran is turning back to Alex Smith, need I say more. I would say Indy will cover the full line and over but a teaser guarantees it. Colts are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall. 49ers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog of 10.5 or greater. Tease Indy to -6.5 and over 38.

Dallas wins big and loses big, they will win this one and cover. Seattle just lost by 24 to Arizona as the favorite and now travels to Big D where Dallas just dismantled Atlanta by 3 scores. Cowboys are 6-2 ATS at home while Seattle is 1-4 ATS on the road, Take Dallas minus 10.

Monday night special, The Saints played bad for a half and beat Miami by 12 in Miami (their smallest margin of victory this year WOW), come on its not even fair. As mentioned before Atlanta just got trounced by Dallas, and they aren’t in the same class as the Saints. Saints are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0 and even more of a lock at home. Take the Saints minus 10.

Baltimore -3 for 2 units (WIN)
Teaser Indy -6.5 and over 38 for 3 units. (loss)
Dallas -10 for 3 units. (WIN)
New Orleans -10 for 3 units. (loss)

Week 7

T-Bone was one point away from a clean sweep in week 6 but still won you 4 units. We have 3 strong plays this week. 

The Colts have been playing well on the road and when they win they win big. The Rams played valiantly last week and still lost to the Jags. The Rams give up almost 30 a game and this will be no different. Peyton probably only has to play a half and I wouldn’t be surprised to the see a score similar to the Patriots/Titans game from last week. The colts are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record, 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 road games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite of 10.5 or greater. What does this all mean, when they win: they COVER. The Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning record and 1-4 ATS after an ATS win, no home field advantage here. Take the Colts -14.

The Pack is back, well they at least they are vs. bad teams, good thing they are going to Cleveland. They just shut out the Lions and I know it’s hard to believe but the Browns are worse. The Pack are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a road favorite and 5-2 ATS as a road favorite of 3.5-10 points, The Browns are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 home games. Take Green Bay -7.

Which 49ers team will show, the one that beat Arizona on the road or the one that lost by 35 to Atlanta at home. Which Texans team will show, the one that lost to Jacksonville at home or the one that beat Cincy on the road. I’m betting on Houston, teams in the NFL progress or regress and the Texans are on the right track while San Fran is still licking their wounds and going to a holdout rookie receiver in their starting lineup. The Texans step up to the level of their competition as they are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. teams with a winning record. The 49ers are 1-5-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog of 0.5-3. Take Houston -3.

Houston -3 for 2 units (Push)
Green Bay -7 for 4 units  (WIN)
Indy -14 for 4 units. (WIN)

Week 6
Carolina had to do everything in their power to come from two scores down to beat the Redskins. If they had played the entire game like the fourth quarter they would have run away with it. Tampa Bay is clueless and injured. Carolina will run away with it, literally, Deangelo and the Daily Show will put up 200 yds rushing minimum. Panthers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite, 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0 and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite of 0.5-3.0. Buccaneers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0 and are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Take the Panthers minus 3, grab it before the line moves.

Atlanta played well last week, really really well. The 49ers looked lost and broken and we finally saw the Roddy White, Matt Ryan and Michael Turner from last year all show up at the same time. The Bears are a team on the rise, which is keeping the line down but the Falcons are a legitimate Super Bowl contender. The Falcons are coming off two weeks on the road and will have a huge home field advantage. Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog and 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog. Falcons are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games, 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0 and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite. Take the Falcons minus 3.

I love when a team lays an egg and then plays a terrible team the next week at home, it makes the line manageable. Last week we had a 5 unit parlay with the Steelers and the over and it was an easy win. We are using the same formula here. The Jaguars will win, no doubt and it won’t be close. Tease the Jaguars to -4 and over 35.5. The Rams don’t even need to score to get the over, they have given up 38, 35 and 36 in their last 3 weeks, and the Jags scored 31 and 37 before last week’s meltdown. A motivated team at home vs. a bad bad team, recipe for success. 

Atlanta -3 for 3 units (WIN)
Jaguars teased to -4 and over 35.5 for 3 units (loss)
Carolina -3 for 4 units (WIN)

Week 5
7-5 YTD up 4 Units. We’re going with 4 strong games this week.

The Vikings are good, very good and the Rams just are not. This line could be 17 and I would take the Vikes. They get a lead and then it’s All Day Peterson, well all day. That defense made Aaron Rodgers look mediocre and the 49ers just returned 3 turnovers for scores vs. the Rams. Kyle Boller will have a long long day. Vikings are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games and the Rams are 7-16 ATS in their last 23 games as an underdog. Take the Vikes minus 10

The Monday night game pits the Jets vs the Phins and this is a case where Miami is seriously overvalued along with the Jets undervalued. The public tends to only look at last week and not the entire body of work. The Jets still beat the pants of the Patriots and the Phins got shellacked by the Chargers. No home field advantage here in Landshark stadium. The Jets held Drew Brees without a touchdown and now Chad Henne comes into his second career start, T-R-O-U-B-L-E. NYJ are 20-5-2 ATS in their last 27 meetings against Miami. Take the Jets plus 2or money line if you can.

There was a time when David Garrard vs. Byron Leftwich for quarterback of the Jags was a debate, this is no longer the case. Garrard is the real deal and doesn’t make mistakes, add MJD and Sims-Walker and you have a well rounded offensive machine. The Seahawks counter with Seneca Wallace and Julius Jones, this may be the last time you the Hawks as a favorite all year, except Rams games of course. Take the Jags plus the field goal. 

Here is one that we have been researching for awhile. Personally T-bone has been killing teasers but don’t usually put them on because they are a personal preference play but this one is an automatic. The Steelers finally showed everyone what they can do, unfortunately the Lions did as well and got crushed by the Bears. The Steelers will cover the 10 but tease it down to 3 and a half wit h the over at 38 (which Pittsburgh may score themselves). 

Vikings -10 for 3 units (WIN)
Jets +2 for 3 units (loss)
Jaguars + 2 for 3 units (loss)
Teaser Steelers -4 and the over 38 for 5 units…….. (WIN)

Week 4
T-Bone’s Week 4 Picks, Currently 6-3 ATS in 2009 up 6 units. I have three winners for you this week in a very important bettors week.

First off, Baltimore +2 vs. the Patriots, The Jets dismantled the Patriot offense with Rex Ryan’s scheme, where is his defense originally installed, yep the Ravens. It will be another long week for Brady and it’s hard to complete passes when you are on your back. Ravens are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 0.5-3.0, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. AFC, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games, and 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. The Patriots are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Take Baltimore on the money line if you can. 

San Francisco being without Frank Gore for this one is the only thing keeping the line below 17. The Rams were bad before and now their QB to WR #1 will probably be Kyle Boller to Keenan Burton, come on. The 49ers will get up early and pile it on late, big line but I’ll take the – 9.5. The 49ers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass, 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC West. The Rams are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games on grass and are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.

T-Bone’s winner winner steak dinner pick of the week.
San Diego is a good team, so is Pittsburgh, the Steelers just aren’t almost a touchdown better right now coming off losses to the Bears and Bengals. I can easily see a Chargers outright win but they will cover, I promise. The Chargers play well as the dog and are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0 and 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0. The Steelers are reeling with these very ominous trends : 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games on grass, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall. 

Ravens +2 for 2 units. (loss)
49ers -9.5 for 3 units. (WIN)
Chargers + 6.5 for 3 units. (loss)

Week 3
After 2 Weeks T-bone is 5-1 with a couple Jeff Reed missed field goals from being perfect, we are currently up 9 units. We won Arizona +3 ½ where they won outright and it wasn’t even a contest after the first quarter. We took a loss when Pittsburgh couldn’t convert its field goals and even won Monday night when the Colts beat the Dolphins -3 even though Miami had the perfect game plan and had the ball for almost the entire game. I have three more for you this week. Home field advantage gives a few points for the home cooking but it’s only an advantage in certain buildings so we are taking a rare three away team card.

First we are taking the high flying Saints -6 vs. the Bills. Drew Brees looks unstoppable and there is just no way that Trent Edwards goes pass for pass with him. The only way New Orleans loses is if someone out shoots them and it won’t be this week. Are you worried about the cover? When the Saints win the cover, that simple, New Orleans is 7-0 ATS as a favorite and 7-1-1 ATS overall in their last 9. The Bills win some games but never against the top tier teams and are 2-8 ATS vs. teams with a winning record and 1-5 ATS at home in their last 6.

Second we are going to back the defending champs again; we were right to pick them last week but were simply unfortunate. They were the best team in Soldier field in week 2 no doubt, but it wasn’t meant to be. I don’t see the Steelers having the same thing happen two weeks in a row. The defense is still top 3 without Polamalu and Cincinnati is overvalued in this game because of how well they played upsetting Green Bay. These teams know each other and check this: Pittsburgh has won the last 10 meetings vs. the Bengals by at least 5 each time, home or away. The road team is 11-3-1 ATS when these teams get together so forget all that home field advantage nonsense. 

T-Bone’s winner winner steak dinner pick of the week.
I usually don’t like having my best game be laying almost a touchdown on the road but if you can put your money in before the line crosses 7, and it will, then the Redskins are a lock. Remember the days when Detroit was unbeatable at home, those days are gone with Barry Sanders. Detroit is 1-9 ATS at home in their last 10 and 0-7 ATS as a home underdog. When the Lions lose(which is often) they get blown out, Jason Campbell doesn’t do a lot great but the man doesn’t turn the ball over. The only way the Lions have a chance is with a bunch of turnovers, not going to happen. The Redskins at 3-0 vs. the Lions since 2004 all by a touchdown or more. 

New Orleans – 6 for 2 units (WIN)
Pittsburgh -4 ½ for 2 units (loss)
Washington -6 ½ for 3 units (loss)

Week 2
After a 3-0 Sunday in week one T-Bone is ready to jump all over the overreacting public. Good teams are good and bad teams are just bad, one week does not change this. Let’s get ready to pay the mortgage, buy the woman a new dress and get the new Flat screen. My crystal ball says 6-0 heading to week 3.

In a line that has already moved a point and half towards the Cards since opening; I’m still taking Arizona +3 and a half. The defending NFC champs go into Jacksonville where the Jags are 1-8 in their last 9 games as a home favorite. Take advantage of the 49ers having familiarity with Warner and the defending NFC champions causing a less than stellar effort and creating this line and a rare opportunity. Let’s get real here, NFC Champs plus points vs. a team that has lost 12 of its last 17… NO Brainer.

Pittsburgh is going to dominate the Bears. Cutler had trouble with the Packers D!!!!!!, the Packers and now the Steel Curtain comes rolling to Soldier Field. The Steelers will run, don’t be fooled by the Titan’s stout defense in week 1 and who would you rather have running your team, a cry baby or a 2 time super bowl champion? I would take this game -6 but we get to take advantage of conservative point spreads early in the year and take it minus 3. Take the money and run.

T-Bone’s winner winner steak dinner pick of the week.
Peyton Manning or Chad Pennington? Reggie Wayne or Ten Ginn? Super Bowl Rings or Wildcat? The wildcat was fun while it lasted but if a young Atlanta team set the precedent for what will become a trend for the Dolphins even a mediocre Colts D can strangle the run. I’ll be amazed if it’s close. You need data? Here it is, in this matchup the road team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10, The Colts are 5-1 ATS on Monday nights, the Dolphins are 1-4 as a home underdog, is that enough? The Dolphins are not far removed from the 1-15 team that we saw two years ago and the Colts are not far removed from a Super Bowl title. Peyton is a coach on the field and simply wills his team to victories, -3 is as low a line as you will get for the Colts. Monday night will do nothing to make Landshark stadium any more intimidating as it is for a Marlins home game.

Arizona +3 ½ 3* (WIN)
Pittsburgh -3 3* (loss)
Colts -3 3* (WIN)

Week 1
Minny -4.5 3* (WIN)
Phily -3 3* (WIN)
GB -4 3* (WIN)

*No Writeups were taken the first week, as I told him to give me 3 winners to prove himself, in which he did!