BPO Sport is 16-2 +44.3 U (+$4,430) L3 NFL Sundays

Week 17

Mr W
Seattle has looked terrible the past few weeks and Tennesee takes a long roadtrip to the gloomy city.  Tenny started the year off 0-6 then made a playoff run only to fall short.  I think Seattle will be more "up" for this game even though it doesnt mean much, alot of Seattle players are playing for their job.  One thing about Seattle is they are not bad at stopping the run and will leave their fans something to cheer about during thier last home game.  Lets go with a home dog.

Seattle +6 for 3 Mr W Units (WIN)

HKC
1:00pm
Current Line:  Cleveland -1.5
Jacksonville has faded from the playoff picture by losing four of its L5 games.  However, as a franchise, Jacksonville has fared well in Cleveland, going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS over the last decade. The Browns are 4-11 after beating Oakland.  With Brady Quinn out, Derek Anderson will be at the helm for the second straight week. Anderson has failed to surpass 122 yards through the air in his past five starts!!  The Browns haven't won four straight games since 1994 - the year before the franchise left for Baltimore - and haven't closed with four consecutive victories since 1986.  This year isn't going to be any different.
Play On - Road teams (JACKSONVILLE) - off a road loss, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season. 
(33-12 over the last 10 seasons.) (73.3%)
HKC 35-14 System Play

Play Jacksonville +1.5, HKC 4* (loss)

4:15pm
Current Line:  Dallas -3
To the winner of the Philadelphia-Dallas conflict of Week 17 go the spoils of the coveted NFC East Division title. Both teams have already clinched playoff spots so all that’s left is to determine who plays who & where. With playoff stakes on the line a year ago in the season finale, Dallas was blasted by the Eagles in Philly, a 44-6 rout. The Cowboys got some payback for that by winning the first meeting between these teams 20-16. With it all on the line today most would not push in their chips on Wade and Romo...but we will!!
Play Against - Road teams (PHILADELPHIA) - after a home game where both teams scored 24 or more points, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season. 
(43-18 since 1983.) (70.5%)

Play Dallas -3, HKC 3* (WIN)

JT
A great season as I ended up positive units and hit both of my 5 star plays with Pitt.

This last week I will not have any 4 or 5 star plays although I do like these plays enough and I have my own money on them as I do with every play I post.

Take Pitt -2 1/2 -125 over Mia for 3 units at 1:00. (WIN)

I bought the hook here.  Pitt. is a team of pride and still have a chance at the playoffs.  Miami which is my home team is ready to pack it in.  R. Williams isn't 100% and Miami's defense isn't great at all.  Crowder is out as well.  I think Pitt lays it to them.  There will most likely be more Pitt fans than Dolphin fans.

Take Dallas -2 1/2 -120 over Philly for 3 units at 4:15. (WIN)

First off if Pitt does not cover then I will lay another unit on this game as I don't see myself going 0-2.  I bought the hook on this one as well.  Dallas is playing great football right now with a big win over the Saints a couple of weeks ago and then blanking Wash. last week.  Philly I think will suffer with the loss of their center Jamaal Jackson.  He was the anchor to that offensive line. Dallas has the momentum so I will gladly take the home team here.

gl and let's end this season on a positive note.


Week 16

HKC
1:00pm
Current Line:  Cleveland -3
Cleveland is 3-13 SU but has covered its L5 games. Oakland is 5-9, and off an upset in Denver. Most of the top trends suggest to fade the Raiders but we think NOT!  In a battle of bottom feeders we see no reason not to take the points here!  I mean really why would ou lay points with either of these teams??
Play Against - Favorites (CLEVELAND) - after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, with a losing record. 
(26-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (83.9%)
HKC 35-13 System Play

Play Oakland +3, HKC 3*(loss)

1:00pm
Current Line:  Miami -3
Miami’s playoff hopes took a severe hit with the loss at Tennessee last Sunday, and now the Dolphins must win their final two remaining games at home and get some help along the way. It starts vs. Houston, a team in nearly the same predicament, although the Texans come in riding the momentum of two straight wins to get back to .500. They have scored very well on the road, 24 PPG in 2009. HC Gary Kubiak’s team is on an 8-3 ATS run on the road after the win in St. Louis. These teams have met the last three seasons, but not in Miami since ’03. Overall, the underdog is on a 4-game ATS winning streak in the head-to-head matchups. Look for Houston to not only cover the number here, but to win the game!
Play On - Any team vs the money line (HOUSTON) - excellent passing team (>=7.3 PYA) against a poor passing team (5.3-5.9 PYA), after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games
(54-10 over the last 10 seasons.) (84.4%)
The situation's record this season is: (11-1 +9.4 units).
HKC 11-4 System Play

Play Houston +3, HKC 4* (WIN)

PC
I looked hard at the entire card and settled on 2 plays for  this Sunday's action.

Seattle @ Green Bay
1:00 PM EST
Even with the very real chance of snow the whole game, I like the Packers to maul the Seahawks today. Green Bay scored 36 @ Pittsburgh last week in similar conditions and today they host Seattle in a game they have to win to maintain pace over the Giants in the NFC wild card picture. Seattle can score, they are just very sporadic. Some quick numbers:
**Green Bay is 5-2 SU at home this year.
**Green Bay is 5-1 SU in their last 6 with the offense averaging 27.8 points a game in their last 5 games against defenses like Pittsburgh, Dallas, Baltimore, Chicago and lowly Detroit.
**The Seahawks have scored 120 points in 7 road games this year. Averaging 17.5 points a game in road contests. Take away the St. Louis and Arizona game and that average drops to 11.3 points a game scored on the road.
I think the Packers absolutely drill them today. Green Bay can score and has been putting up monster points against some of the best defenses in the NFL. Today they get to lick their chops at home against a defense and team that has nothing to play for in abysmal weather. I think the Pack will have this one up by more than 20 points by halftime. The combo of Rogers and the passing game with Grant in the backfield will be just what the doctor ordered for the Pack to get bafck on track after last week's heartbreaker at Pittsburgh.
PC 4**** on Green Bay -13 ½ (WIN)

Kansas City @ Cincy
1:00 PM EST
I'm advocating an under play. Both teams run the ball well and both teams shot their load offensively last week in shootouts. I have Carson Palmer in fantasy and last week was the first week he went over 300 yards all year. The Chiefs defense is terrible, but Benson will eat up a lot of those minutes on the ground. KC is usually up to the task as a huge dog ATS wise, and to keep it close, they will force feed Jamaal charles on offense. With Cincy assured of clinching their spot with a win, I don't see an offensive shoot out. Not a huge write up here, as a Chief's fan, I expect another loss and in a snow game, Cassell won't pass well to a below average corp of receivers. Look for the Chiefs defense to play inspired for a half and for Cincy to run out the clock for our under.
PC 2** on KC under 39 ½ (WIN)

Good luck today.

Mr W
I'm again going with the Steelers, if you really dig into this game Pitt is still just a bit better then the Ravens.  Despite injuries, rumors, playoffs implications I think this Steeler team will avenge their loss to the Ravens a few weeks ago.  The Ravens D has been struggling all year vs's the pass and I think Ben will put on a good showing at home.  If the Steeler D is motivated we should have this one in the bag by the 4th.

Steelers -2.5 for 3 Units (WIN)

Have to go with the Jets here, Indy has burned me before but this could be the game I get my money back.  The Jets are excellent vs's the pass and they don't blitz much so this takes away from Indy's steller offensive front.  Again the question...how long Indy going to play their starters?  I felt this line should have a been a point or two higher so this is a good spot, it also doesnt hurt that the Jets run game is great meaning we get time off the clock and no Manning on the field.  Jets Jets Jets

Jets +6 for 3 Units (WIN)

JT
I had one 5 star earlier with Pitt. and have one more as we end the year.

I'm taking Pitt - 2 1/2 -115 over Balt. at 1:00 for 5 JT units. (WIN)

Last weeks win over G.B. really lifted Pitt's spirits.  They are still in the playoff hunt and let's be honest they still are the champs. I'm not sold on Flaaco yet as he is still only a second year player.  I think the line us undervalued due to Pitt's record and recent woes.  I think Pitt hands it to Balt and wins by a TD.

Gl and happy holidays.

JT MONEY

HKC
12/25, 7:30pm
Current Line:  Tennessee -3
The Chargers and Titans bring in the holiday cheer with a Christmas game on NFL Network. The Chargers have wrapped up a first round playoff bye thanks to their win over Cincinnati and will play as the AFC’s #2 seed when the postseason kicks off in two weeks.  By the way the line reads most think the Chargers may have a let down because of this.  Tennessee is still hoping to be part of that party and at 7-7, still has a chance in the crowded wildcard chase. The Chargers are 12-0 SU & 10-3 ATS in December under Norv Turner, and have won the L5 games between these teams, both SU & ATS. San Diego is also on a nice run of 13-3 ATS vs. AFC South foes.  We'll take the value of the points in a game where we feel the dog wins outright.
Play Against - Home teams (TENNESSEE) - in a game involving two average teams (within +/- 40 YPG of their opponents) after 8+ games, after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game. 
(26-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (74.3%)

Play San Diego +3, HKC 3* (WIN)

Week 15

JT
I wanted to wait as I've been seeing what the weather is doing.

Today I'm on over 36 1/2 -120 in clec./kc. game at 1:00 for 4 units. (WIN)

You have two very bad defenses playing against each other.  Both coaches I think hold nothing back as the season winds down.  Mangini might have to bring whatever he can as his job is on the line.  Haley knows he has a work in progress with his team so I think he pushes Cassell.  I can see this one being over before the 4th quarter starts.

glta and let's make that $$$$$$$

HKC
1:00pm
Current Line:  NY Jets -7
Atlanta nearly upset unbeaten New Orleans before losing 26-23, but the Falcons are in danger of falling out of playoff contention. Despite a 4-1 start.  They should be able to contain a Sanchez led Jets team in some horrid conditions.  With the weather that has hit the east coast the ground attack should control this game and the Falcons have allowed only an average of 89.8 rushing yards over the last four games.  In a "must" win for both teams we usually take the points and will again today.
Play Against - Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (NY JETS) - after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% in the second half of the season. 
(26-6 over the last 10 seasons.) (81%)
HKC 32-13 System Play

Play Atlanta Falcons +7.5 -120, HKC 4* (WIN)

 4:15pm
Current Line:  Baltimore Ravens -11
Baltimore plays its third straight game vs. a NFC North foe, and so far the results have been mixed, bad on the road, good at home. This weeks game is at home where there is a reported 20+ inches of snow on the ground versus the slumping Bears, who have lost eight of their last 9 games ATS. Chicago falls into a trend that finds them 7-25 ATS in December road contests today. Baltimore has thrived under John Harbaugh versus bad teams, going 8-0 ATS versus those with a losing record, including last weeks throttling of Detroit. That win kept the Ravens playoff hopes alive.  Today in their home finale we look for Ray Rice and the Ravens defense to come up big against a mistake prone Bears team.
Play On - Home favorites (BALTIMORE) - good team (outgain opp. by 0.4 to 1 YPP) against an average team (+/- 0.4 YPP) after 8+ games, after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game. 
(48-21 since 1983.) (70%)

Play Baltimore Ravens -11, HKC 3* (WIN)

PC
Houston @ St. Louis
1:00 PM EST
After consulting with my West Coast Guru, Perry Como, we decided the under in this game is a solid play. As you may or may not know, the Rams have a small case of swine flu going around the locker. Hell, it might help their anemic offense which is averaging a solid 11.3 points a game scored. In a game where neither team is really playing for anything, Houston will get after the Rams and play the scrubs as they get ready for next week. Steve Slaton is out and the running duties should be split between Airan Foster and Ryan Moats with Chris Brown getting goal line touch's. The Rams will battle with Stephen Jackson just pounding the ball in the turf. The high total is set because the Rams pass defense is terrible, but with Houston's running game in such a funk, I see St. Louis rushing 3 and defending 8 against the pass for most of the afternoon. This should be a very boring game and if Houston does get that big lead I anticipate, I have to advocate we roll the under. Houston will not air it out with a big lead in the 2nd half and the Rams just simply don't have the arsenal to do anything but show up and defned the pass. Jackson will go over a 100 yards and when he does, the under is cash money. Here's some interesting stats:
**Houston is 5-0 ATS on the under on the road in it's last 5.
**Houston ranks 25'th in the league in rushing on the road with 88.5 yards a game.

I see a Houston lead and then a great 2H under play and an under for the game. I'm rollin the under fellas.
PC 3*** on under 44 in Houston@ STL (WIN)

Mr W
Tampa Bay travels to Seattle to take on the Seahawks.  Tampa Bay has only won one game this year.  The Seahawks are 5-8 and have looked every bit of a 5-8 team.  Its tough to back a team with one win but in this case we will do it.  I don't want to say they are a good 1-12 team but Seattle should not be laying 7 points to anybody.  They have looked sloppy, they rank 22 on overall defense, they can't run the ball, they can't stop anybody from passing and are giving up almost 360 yards per game.  With that being said we will put a small play on the Bucs.

Tampa Bay +7 for 2 Units (WIN)

Green Bay at Pitt
Now Pittsburgh is really backed into a wall.  They are just about out of the playoffs and not much positive is being said.  That's why we will back the Steelers today.  This team seems to rise to challenges but lets down everybody when we expect greatness.  Its been a bad year for them and they have a chance to beat a redhot Packers team who I don't feel has been challenged all that much this year.  If Pitt comes out with their attitudes they will put a hurting on Rodgers.  Lets go black and gold, give us a good showing.  Remember the Pitt D can step up at anytime, they have been playing flat but today should be different.

Burgh -1 for 4 Units (Push)